NFL thoughts Week 2 – Part I (AFC)

To me, the biggest story of the NFL season through Week 2 is how vulnerable the “favorites” have looked.  The Steelers, Patriots, Eagles, and Chargers are all 1-1 and have some glaring weaknesses.  The Giants, Colts, and Vikings are all 2-0 but haven’t looked great.  The Titans are 0-2 and if they lose to the Jets this weekend they will have the same number of losses they had ALL last season when they went 13-3.  But this is why the NFL is by far the best and most exciting professional sports league today.  The Jets, Ravens, Saints, Falcons, 49ers, and Broncos have all taken advantage and jumped out to impressive 2-0 starts, giving hope to their fans.  Here’s my analysis of each division so far, specifically looking at which favorites are vulnerable and who is most likely to supplant them atop the standings.

AFC East

Favorite – Patriots.  Ready to make a jump – Jets.  Sleeper – Bills?  Not looking good – Dolphins.

Obviously, the biggest story so far is the Jets.  They are 2-0 and have dominated both games defensively, not giving up a touchdown to either the Patriots or Texans, two of the best offenses in the league.  While it may be too early to declare a changing of the guard, the Patriots have looked sluggish and could easily be 0-2 right now were it not for some luck and some big plays down the stretch against the Bills.  They aren’t going to catch any early-season breaks either as they play the Falcons and the Ravens in weeks 3 and 4.  They need to put it together quickly to avoid starting 1-3.  I picked the Jest to make the playoffs in my preview column but I didn’t expect them to look this good right away.  Mark Sanchez has played with incredible poise for someone making his first two NFL starts.  The Bills have looked surprisingly feisty so far, with Trent Edwards playing well.  We’ll know a lot more about them after the high scoring Saints come to town this week.

AFC North

Favorite – Steelers.  Ready to make a jump – Ravens.  Sleeper – Bengals?  Not looking good – Browns.

My prediction that the Ravens would jump the Steelers this year is looking spot on.  The difference between those two teams right now is offense.  The Ravens are a team that can move the ball against anyone with their three-way running attack or with Joe Flacco and their passing game.  Right now the Steelers offense can’t dominate games.  Their running game has been nonexistent and the offensive line has struggled.  If they are going to score points, it’s going to be up to Ben Roethlisberger.  Luckily for Steeler fans, Roethlisberger can do it.  He’s a unique player in the NFL.  His ability to make plays by waiting and waiting, while fighting off pass rushers is amazing.  He’s the most frustrating player to watch play against your team.  It always seems like you should have about 12 sacks and at the end of the game you only have 3 and he’s made 9 big plays.  The Steelers defense is still strong but they won’t be the same until Troy Polamalu comes back at full strength.  They’ve got a tough matchup on the road against the Bengals this week.  The Bengals look really good on defense and could make some noise if Carson Palmer and the offense put some points on the board.  Don’t be surprised if the Bengals win this week.

AFC South

Favorites – Colts, Titans.  Ready to make a jump – Texans?  Not looking good – Jaguars.

The Colts are 2-0, but they’ve only won by a combined 6 points and their defense was gashed by the Dolphins rushing attack.  Not a good sign when the running backs in your division are Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton, and Maurice Jones-Drew.  We could see a lot of shootouts in the AFC South, much like the Titans, Texans game.  The Titans are 0-2 and need to get on track fast.  Their offense looks good, with Kerry Collins playing well, Chris Johnson running like crazy, and the revamped receiving core making plays.  Their problem has been their pass defense.  Matt Schaub and Ben Roethlisberger have carved them up in consecutive weeks.  Is it the defensive backs?  The lack of pass rush?  The scheme?  Head coach Jeff Fisher and new defensive coordinator Chuck Cecil better figure it out before they play Peyton Manning.  I’m intrigued by the Texans.  They were crushed by the Jets in Week 1, but they came back and got a huge win against the Titans.  The defense needs to play better than they did against the Titans, though.  They can’t catch the Colts unless they get better on that side of the ball.

AFC West

Favorite – Chargers.  Ready to make a jump – Broncos?  Not looking good – Raiders, Chiefs.

I still think the Chargers are going to run away with this division pretty easily.  Philip Rivers throws the ball downfield better than any QB right now.  LaDainian Tomlinson is hurt again but I think backup Darren Sproles is better than him at this point in their careers anyway.  I think that went Tomlinson comes back they should share the load the way the Ravens are splitting the carries between Willis McGahee and Ray Rice.  The Chargers have been hit hard by injuries so far and have struggled on defense.  If the defense plays better they shouldn’t have much of  a problem holding off the 2-0 Broncos.  I’m not ready to buy the Broncos as a contender yet this year.  After they play the Raiders this week they have 8 tough games in a row.  A 3-0 start would be great, but no one should be fooled into thinking they’re a playoff team because they beat the Bengals, Browns, and (potentially) the Raiders.  Their defense was absolutely awful last year and it seems to have improved but we won’t know for sure until they start playing some good teams.