Do the Saints Have a Chance?

The Super Bowl is on Sunday which means that, among many other things, sports fans are going to read approximately 500 articles on various websites predicting the outcome of the game.  Being your average fan with too much time on my hands, I’ve read many of these articles and there seems to be one common theme – the Saints are in trouble on Sunday.

There are some people picking the Saints to win, but the majority of those people are only doing that because everyone else seems to be picking the Colts.  This isn’t bad logic when it comes to recent Super Bowls.  Sure the Cinderella Cardinals didn’t quite pull off the upset last year, but they were within an amazing Santonio Holmes toe tap from making it two big Super Bowl upsets in a row (joining the Giants over the Patriots).  So would it really be a huge surprise to see an upset?  I’m not so sure, especially when you compare them to the ‘07 Giants who snuck into the the playoffs at 10-6 or the ‘08 Cardinals who were 9-7, barely over .500.  These Saints went 13-3 and were considered as good or better than the Colts for much of the season.  Believe it or not this is the first Super Bowl since 1994 (Cowboys, Bills) featuring the top seeds from each conference.

So why does everyone think the Colts are going to win?  Two big reasons.  First, these Colts have looked great in their two playoff wins while the Saints struggled on defense against the Cardinals and were mostly dominated by the Vikings in the conference championship before pulling out the win in overtime.  Also it needs to be mentioned that when the Colts have played their starters this season they are undefeated.

The second reason everyone loves the Colts is simple.  Peyton Manning.  Peyton is in such a zone right now that it’s hard to imagine him not being the story of the season when this game is over.  He’s had some difficulties in the playoffs in previous years, but he just seems on another level this year.  Last week, for example, he torched the NFL’s best pass defense for 3 touchdowns when they only gave up 8 the entire regular season.  The Saints blitz often, much like the Jets, they just aren’t quite as talented, so you have to expect Peyton to play well.

Here’s my case for the Saints.  Yes, the Colts have looked good in the playoffs but the Ravens and Jets are nowhere near as explosive as the Saints on offense.  If the Saints can get out to a first half lead like the Jets were able to, the pressure will be heavy on the Colts offense to bring them back.  Perhaps they will take a few more risks, leaving themselves open to turnovers which the opportunistic Saints D loves to capitalize on (5 forced turnovers against the Vikings last week).  Meanwhile, the Saints have beaten two teams that play a similar pass-happy style that the Colts play.  In both games they’ve figured out ways to get pressure on the QB and force turnovers.  Then again, those teams didn’t have Peyton Manning running the show.

I’m pretty conflicted as to who is going to win, but here’s my prediction of how the game plays out.  I think the Saints get off to a fast start and Drew Brees is on fire in the first quarter.  The Colts fight back in the 2nd quarter but Brees ends the half with a touchdown drive and a 21-10 lead.  The second half Manning brings the Colts back into it, leading to a back and forth final quarter.  I see the Saints just barely hanging on by a score of 37-34, bringing them their first Super Bowl championship.  Go Saints!