It seems ever since November 5, 2008, pundits started making calculations about the 2010 midterm elections. Heck, they even began ranking future Republican Presidential nominees for 2012.
And now, almost 1 year into Obama’s first term, all the chatter is about 2010. The polls approving of Republicans in Congress have barely moved from there low dwelling points since the Democrats re-took control in 2006. Although the Democrats approval rating has dropped about 10 points since last January. However, this isn’t unusual – no one likes Congress, ever. It’s an institution with a bunch of old guys, and an increasing number of old ladies, who seem to move too slow, accomplish too little and argue too much. What’s there to like?
History tells us the party out of office will gain seats in midterm elections. The party in power will lose seats. All 435 seats are up for grabs in the House and 36 seats in the Senate. For the Republican party to regain control of Congress, they need to gain 20+ seats in the Senate and 81+ seats in the House. Is this possible?
GOP Chairman Michael Steele thinks so. He’s been bragging for weeks about the predicted victories of Republicans next Fall. And his voice has been joined by Karl Rove, Dick Morris and countless others.
But, not so fast. There is a factor that has come to rise in recent weeks that may change the landscape. And it’s a movement the Republican party initially clinged to, hoping to ride the wave of discontentment back to power. However, the Tea Party Movement seems to be fracturing off from the Republican party. They are not happy with Republicans or Democrats and are looking to back their own candidates in 2010.
In many congressional districts, we could be looking at a 3 way race between a Democrat, a Republican and a hard liner Tea Party Candidate. If this happens, there could be plenty of situations unfolding similar to what happened in NY’s 23rd district, when voters ultimately choose the Democrat over the Republican and Tea Party candidate.
Not to be outdone by the Tea Party, Republican leadership wants to institute a purity test. This would be a 10 point checklist that candidates must sign off on in order to receive money from the National Republican Party. And a party with an ever shrinking tent just got smaller.
I predict there will be Democratic losses in 2010, but I’m not sure if it will result in a total takeover of Congress. The ground seems to be shifting out from under the Republican party and voters may just stay home instead of choosing between the GOP and the Tea Party.
But, we still have 329 days until we find out for sure, so let’s not hold our breath.
