A few weeks into this NFL season a friend of mine said he thought that three teams would win at least 14 games this year. Considering only one team (Tennessee Titans) even won 13 games last year I thought that was ridiculous. I countered by saying that either zero, or at most, one team would win 14+ games this year.
We decided to turn it into a $5 bet. If zero or one team wins 14+ I win the bet. If two or more pull it off, he wins (I was so confident that I gave him the win if 2 teams pulled it off, despite his original claim of 3). Every team has played either 7 or 8 games so far, so let’s analyze the 9 teams who still have a chance to win 14 or more games.
Group 1 – No Chance in Hell
Cincinnati Bengals (5-2) – 5 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Ravens, @ Steelers, @ Vikings, @ Chargers, @ Jets
The Bengals have been a great story this year, but not even their most delusional fans think they can run the table the rest of the way. 4 of their 5 tough remaining games are on the road and even though they’re undefeated on the road so far we’re probably looking at a BEST CASE scenario of 12 wins. Bengals are worried about competing in the tough AFC North and making the playoffs, not winning 14 games.
Dallas Cowboys (5-2) – 6 remaining games against potential playoff teams – @ Eagles, @ Packers, @ Giants, Chargers, @ Saints, Eagles
The Cowboys are on a nice 3 game win streak where Tony Romo hasn’t committed a turnover. I’m betting both of those streaks end at Philly this weekend.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-2) – 8 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Cowboys, @ Chargers, @ Bears, @ Falcons, @ Giants, 49ers, Broncos, @ Cowboys
This team lost to the Raiders. There’s no way they win the rest of their games when the only “easy” game they have left is a divisional matchup with the Redskins.
Group 2 – Highly Unlikely
Denver Broncos (6-1) – 5 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Steelers, Chargers, Giants, @ Colts, @ Eagles
The Broncos came back down to earth a little this past week when they were crushed by the Ravens. The schedule isn’t overwhelming if they take care of business at home, but they aren’t talented enough to just show up and dominate, even against the weaker teams.
Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) – 6 remaining games against potential playoff teams – @ Broncos, Bengals, @ Ravens, Packers, Ravens, @ Dolphins
The defending champs are on a roll, having won 4 straight. Running the table would include sweeping two games against the Ravens (who they beat 3 times last year). I think the Ravens will knock them off at least once, if the Broncos don’t do it first.
New England Patriots (5-2) – 6 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Dolphins, @ Colts, Jets, @ Saints, @ Dolphins, @ Texans
Although I could see the Patriots playing well and going on a big win streak to close out the regular season, it’s hard to imagine them beating the two best teams in the NFL on the road.
Group 3 – Possible but Doubtful
Minnesota Vikings (7-1) – 5 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Bears, @ Cardinals, Bengals, @ Bears, Giants
The Vikings may very well be favored in each of their remaining games. This is a very talented team that would win 14 games if they equaled their first half performance. However, if two plays go the other way (hail mary touchdown against the 49ers and a missed FG by the Ravens) they could easily be 5-3 right now. Brett Favre has been great, but I see him reverting to the old Brett Favre a few times – throwing bad interceptions and potentially costing them some wins. I’m not overly concerned but I admit 14-2 is in play for this team.
Group 4 – I’m Nervous
Indianapolis Colts (7-0) – 6 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Texans, Patriots, @ Ravens, @ Texans, Broncos, Jets
The Colts are playing at a very high level right now and there’s no reason to think that will stop. They’re winning some blowouts, and pulling out close games in the clutch as well. The Colts are not great at running the ball, or stopping the run and those flaws could cost them a few games over the 2nd half of the season. Maybe a 13-2 Colts team rests Peyton Manning and others in the season finale against the Bills?
New Orleans Saints (7-0) – 3 remaining games against potential playoff teams – Patriots, @ Falcons, Cowboys
The Saints have the easiest schedule of all the teams with a chance to win 14+ games. It actually seems almost as likely that they’d win all 16 than lose 3. They’re a complete team and are about as safe a bet to win 14 in today’s NFL as it gets, but you never know, an injury here or there and suddenly they’re struggling to hold on to their division lead.
Overall, I think my chances of winning the bet have dropped from “very good” to about “50 / 50.”
Kyle graduated from Ithaca College in 2007 and now lives in Los Angeles, working for an entertainment television show. He is huge fan of his home town teams – particularly the Patriots, Red Sox, and Celtics.